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The Domino Theory was used to justify U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War. Simply put, if the Communists were not stopped in Vietnam, all of Asia might turn Red.
My question is twofold – first, is this a legitimate foreign policy basis? Second – has the Domino Theory been brought back to life in a new form, as President Bush argues that if Al Qaeda is not fought in Afghanistan/Iraq, we would be fighting them on U.S. soil?
The Domino Theory was a legitimate foreign policy based on the data collected during the Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and LBJ/McNamara administrations. Secretary of Defense, McNamara believed that a Sino/Soviet bloc existed that was coordinating a communist takeover of East Asia. What happened in reality was that Ho Chi Minh and the Vietcong used Chinese assistance to withstand French and then American involvement in South Vietnam only to strike out on their own by shaking off Chinese dominance. The Chinese were in fact competitors with the Soviets for spheres of influence in Asia. The two great powers even fought a border skirmish in Manchuria (I forget the actual date on this tussle). The reason the Domino Theory came into existence was due to the backlash the Truman administration suffered when the Nationalists were exiled from mainland China to the island of Formosa (Taiwan). Truman was blamed for losing China, and the residue of this blame game created the policy to contain the spread of communism to the rest of East Asia. Korea became the test ground for the new containment. The Eisenhower administration continued the containment policies in Korea, and Indochina simply became the latest installment. By the time of Johnson, the Domino Theory was practically canon in foreign policy thinking as a Democrat administration continued a Republican idea. It was a theory that invoked consensus on both sides of the aisles. Sadly though, military containment did not work against communism, only economic development and democratic impulses checked the advance of Marxist regimes. The Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations shifted their emphasis from a generic containment of communism to an attempt at thawing relations with the communist powers. Nixon engaged the Chinese in diplomatic dialogue for the first time since the rise of the communists and Henry Kissenger initiated the new policy of detente which allowed a communist sphere of influence based on the reciprocity that the communists allowed a mirror sphere of influence for capitalism. It was not until the Reagan Era that detente was dropped in favor of escalation eventually leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Iron Curtain. The Soviet Union disintegrated not long after as the costs of the military industrial complex overwhelmed the stagnated Soviet economy. China has retained its communism only because it has gradually incorporated a controlled capitalist element to its burgeoning economy. China is communist ideologically, but economically it is approaching a free market. In time, communism will be restricted to Vietnam and Cuba…..and in Cuba’s case, it may only last as long as Fidel Castro remains alive.
As for the second part of the question. No Bush is not waging war to prevent a domino effect of terrorism….he is waging a war to erect a domino effect of democracy. If Iraq’s democracy is successful, he believes it will spread to the rest of the Middle East like a contagion…….the contagion of liberty. 😀
Yes, that’s a better characterization of it – a domino effect of democracy. And while a common element is involved (fighting the enemy in one location on our terms rather than in another location), the domino theory presupposes governmental collapse through Communistic influence. Islamic terrorists won’t collapse any governments, but they could temporarily collapse part of an economic system.
Interesting part you said about USSR-Chinese competition. As of about 2000, the Chinese economy was still significantly in control by the government (at least 40%), which is like putting a straightjacket on a lion. Although the economy wants to move into the free market, the government is getting into the way. An attack by China on Taiwan or some other country would be a severe setback for its economy, as I believe massive foreign direct investment would come to a standstill.
You might want to add Venezuela as a Communist Creeper; last I heard the government was taking over oil production once again, which it had previously privatized a few dozen years ago when it realized the government wasn’t good at running the petrol show. Talk about not learning from history.
The Domino Theory has always gotten a bad rap. It was a plausible scenario at the time and we saw it come to fruition in a limited way after the South fell with the installation of a commie govt. in Cambodia. I’m sympathetic to the theory because for all we knew, it was a certainty. That’s the problem with monday morning quarterbacking like the press and Left loves to engage in. We live in a real world with real problems and an unknowable future.
nemesisenforcer wrote:The Domino Theory has always gotten a bad rap. It was a plausible scenario at the time and we saw it come to fruition in a limited way after the South fell with the installation of a commie govt. in Cambodia. Has the Domino Theory gotten a bad rap? I’m not familiar with modern criticisms against the theory, though I wouldn’t be surprised by them.I think that politics at any point in time in history is difficult, and it is far easier to judge decisions in retrospect. Unfortunately, when judging past actions, some people or ideologies are overly quick to do so, particularly when doing so supports one’s contemporary ideology. We can see this time and time again.
The Domino Theory was very logical and perhaps even prudent during that time. However, retrospect shows us that it was based on false assumptions of Soviet/Chinese cooperation, and the geo-strategic value of Southeast Asia. I have never criticized the theory based on these false assumptions because they were understandable fears that simply could not be wished away. It is not fair for historians to judge McNamara and the others for missing the mark. We had no way of knowing that the Soviet Union was battle fatigued from World War II, and that the Chinese resented the Soviets as competitors. We couldn’t afford to take chances while the missile gap narrowed and the Chinese modernized. We had to make grave choices and we made them. Where the criticism comes in is in the execution of the war in Vietnam itself. Here is where stupidity and political manuvering doomed us to failure. We as a nation are still recovering from the scars from that dark time in American history.
Has the Domino Theory gotten a bad rap?
That depends on who you ask.? ?Most of you guys probably know all this stuff, but here's something I found recently about Vietnam stats
The domino theory was accurate. The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand stayed free of Communism because of the U.S. commitment to Vietnam. The Indonesians threw the Soviets out in 1966 because of America's commitment in Vietnam. Without that commitment, Communism would have swept all the way to the Malacca Straits that is south of Singapore and of great strategic importance to the free world. If you ask people who live in these countries that won the war in Vietnam, they have a different opinion from the American news media. The Vietnam War was the turning point for Communism. [Westmoreland]Democracy Catching On – In the wake of the Cold War, democracies are flourishing, with 179 of the world's 192 sovereign states (93%) now electing their legislators, according to the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union. In the last decade, 69 nations have held multi-party elections for the first time in their histories. Three of the five newest democracies are former Soviet republics: Belarus (where elections were first held in November 1995), Armenia (July 1995) and Kyrgyzstan (February 1995). And two are in Africa: Tanzania (October 1995) and Guinea (June 1995). [Parade Magazine]
So it seems like the Domino Theory holds true for democracies as well. However, I can't say that it's as easy to become a democracy as it is to become communist. Think of the democracy that is Turkey in the Middle East/Far East Europe. I hardly hear of more Muslim countries following Turkey's lead.
 We as a nation are still recovering from the scars from that dark time in American history.
We are repeating history, because we've learned nothing from the past.
